I was at Hampden's market briefing at Fishmongers’ Hall this morning

I was at Hampden's market briefing at Fishmongers’ Hall this morning, and one comment has really stuck with me.

After three strong years with relatively few big catastrophes, their research team is now trying to separate the syndicates that were skilful from the ones that were simply lucky.

That matters because the market is changing.

Insurers at Lloyd’s sold 15.8% more cover in the first half of this year but charged 6.7% less for it.

A quiet run for big claims has meant strong profits, and that’s brought in more money and more competition.

The market is still in pretty good health, but when rising prices stop doing the heavy lifting, you find out what was really driving growth.

Data is speeding everything up.

Insurers with better data can spot badly priced business and walk away sooner, and the speakers favoured firms investing in data and AI to support their people’s judgement.

AI is also a new risk and a new market.

If a business makes a bad decision based on AI and gets sued, who pays?

The speakers expect AI cover to become standard, the way cyber cover did.

And Swiss Re expects AI data centres, and the energy to run them, to create around $200bn of new insurance premiums by 2030.

For me it’s quite clear that the firms that keep growing in a softer market will be the ones that are smart and user data, and that clients find easiest to understand, deal with and trust.